This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...

Der vorliegende Beitrag schlägt einen Ansatz zum Schätzen der Unsicherheit vor die mit modellbasierten gesamtwirtschaftlichen Prognosen verbunden ist. Unserer Ansicht nach sollte dabei die Unsicherheit berücksichtigt werden, die sich aus der Wahl der Modellspezifikation anhand der...

The German economy has not yet found out of the phase of stagnation it has been in since the fall of 2000. This spring, aggregate production even fell, again. Real GDP decreased in the second quarter of 2003 with an annual rate of 0.2 percent, following a decline in the preceding two quarters....

The German economy has been stagnating for three years, now. In the first quarter of 2003, real GDP even fell, with an annual rate of 0.9 percent. It had decreased also in the quarter before and the underutilization of capacities has meanwhile become significant, although capacity utilization is...

The German economy stagnated in 2002. Real GDP only increased by 0.2 percent, even less than in 2001 (0.6 percent). In the fourth quarter of 2002, aggregate production fell slightly. Consumer spending stagnated as a result of virtually constant real disposable income and the losses in financial...