This paper discusses the fiscal policy implications of applying an alternative output gap methodology. The alternative methodology replaces the NAWRU by the structural unemployment rate (SUR) estimated by DG ECFIN in the calculation of potential GDP. The note studies how the use of this method...

Special topic: Using fat survey data to nowcast euro area GDP growth. After losses in 2018-Q1 and a broad sideways movement in Q2, the euro-area (EA) and EU Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) posted moderate decreases of 0.9 (EU) and 1.4 (EA) points in the third quarter. In both cases, the...