The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates implies that the spread between short and long bond yields should forecast next period's change in the long yield. Regression based tests have systematically rejected the expectations hypothesis, with estimated coefficients far...

Existing models of self-fulfilling crises fail to explain both the onset and the abruptness of recent currency attacks. In this apper we follow the suggestion by Myerson (1998) that in games with a very large number of players 'a more realistic model should admit some uncertainty about the...

An ability to adequately assess the functioning of exchange rate regimes is crucial. Such an assessment will be based on a priori beliefs about how different regimes react to shocks and therefore which regime will be appropriate for a given economy. This paper contributes to this literature by...

In this paper, we draw on both the consistent specification testing and the predictive ability testing literatures and propose a test for predictive accuracy which is consistent against generic nonlinear alternatives. Broadly speaking, given a particular reference model, assume that the...

Empirical tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure hage almost without exception been tests of the time-series properties of interest rates. However, the expectations hypothesis has implications not just for the yield movement of a single pair of bond maturities over a number...

In this paper we introduce a unit root test for dynamic panel data models, allowing for cross-sectional heteroscedasticity and serial correlation in the disturbance term. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived under the assumption that the time dimension of the panel is...