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We propose a rational model of endogenous cycles generated by the two-way interaction between credit market sentiments and real outcomes. Sentiments are high when most lenders optimally choose lax lending standards. This leads to low interest rates and high output growth, but also to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481327
This paper studies the business cycle effects on the performance of commercial bank loan portfolios across major … related to expected losses in bank income statements). Our results indicate that while economic growth is the main driver of … equivalent to the median emerging market bank profitability; while a decline of more than 10 pp in growth implies significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130571
We propose a rational model of endogenous cycles generated by the two-way interaction between credit market sentiments and real outcomes. Sentiments are high when most lenders optimally choose lax lending standards. This leads to low interest rates and high output growth, but also to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014095303
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014445531
A baseline integration of commercial banks into the disequilibrium framework with behavioral traders of Charpe et al. (2011, 2012) is presented. At the core of the analysis is the impact the banking sector exerts on the interaction of real and financial markets. Potentially destabilizing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010345688
While Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2005) suggest using business cycle in tactical asset allocation with commodity futures, Jensen et al (2002) suggest using monetary policy in guiding the timing of investment. We investigate whether it is useful to watch both.We find that clever timing in asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132651
responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
We use a DSGE model that generates endogenous movements in risk premia to examine the positive and normative implications of alternative monetary policy rules. As emphasized by the micro-finance literature, variation in risk arises because households face fixed costs of transferring cash across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013140045
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001084131
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001315897