Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques, based on machine learning, can readily be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily time-series. However, econometric studies have shown that...

We study the performance of sales forecasts which linearly combine model-based forecasts and expert forecasts. Using a unique and very large database containing monthly model-based forecasts for many pharmaceutical products and forecasts given by thirty-seven different experts, we document that...

In this paper, we compare two fundamentally different judgmental demand forecasting approaches used to estimate demand and their corresponding demand distributions. In the first approach, parameters are obtained from a linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on team...

We develop a forecasting method for the manufacturer and online seller of a product collection that changes periodically and radically. The firm, an industry leader in technology and quality, has experienced double-digit annual sales growth. In seeking to minimize supply-demand mismatch costs...

The Bass (1969) diffusion theory often guides the construction of forecasting models for new product diffusion. To match the model with data, one needs to put forward a statistical model. This paper compares four empirical versions of the model, where two of these explicitly incorporate...

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...

Globally, "Retailing" has been always on a high-octane mode from the inception of Walmart in the 1960s to the launch Amazon in 90s. But, as we ushered into the digital landscape with new knowledge on customer data, pertaining to its behavior - the timeline of decision makings and executions has...

The majority of studies on market orientation claim that compelling evidence exists that market orientation has a positive effect on business performance. This study takes a closer look at forty studies that have addressed the relationship between market orientation and business performance in...

We propose a new empirical representation of the Bass diffusion model, in order to estimate thethree key parameters, concerning innovation, imitation and maturity. The representation isbased on the notion that the observed data may temporarily deviate from the mean pathdetermined by the...

This paper applies the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure of Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2003) to a set of volatility models. A MCS is analogous to confidence interval of a parameter in the sense that the former contains the best forecasting model with a certain probability. The key to the MCS...