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Providing a more accurate covariance matrix forecast can substantially improve the performance of optimized portfolios. Using out-of-sample tests, in this paper, we evaluate alternative covariance matrix forecasting methods by looking at (1) their forecast accuracy, (2) their ability to track...
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This paper argues that the inherent data problems make precise point identification of realized correlation difficult … robust approach to inference especially when the realized correlation is used for estimating other risk measures. We forecast … find that the bounds provide good predictive coverage of the realized correlation for both 1- and 10-step forecasts even in …
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This paper introduces a multivariate kernel based forecasting tool for the prediction of variance-covariance matrices of stock returns. The method introduced allows for the incorporation of macroeconomic variables into the forecasting process of the matrix without resorting to a decomposition of...
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