Millions of Americans have negative housing equity, meaning that the outstanding balance on their mortgage exceeds their home's current market value. Our data show that the overwhelming majority of these households will not lose their homes. Our finding is consistent with historical evidence: we...

In this paper, we show that incomplete markets lead to trade imbalances. We use a two-period general equilibrium model with countries composed of heterogeneous households. We look at a world where, when markets are complete, countries engage in balanced trade; and we show that when some of those...

This paper presents evidence that investors in residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) did not rely exclusively on ratings but rather took the asset pool fundamentals into account when pricing these securities. Yield spreads at issuance have predictive power for future performance after...

This paper uses novel regulatory data on internal loan-level risk metrics of US banks to show that corporate loan interest rates line up closely with measures of hard information. We show that the variation in interest rates in excess of what internal models suggest provides limited information...

In dynamic models of asset markets with asymmetric information and endogenous screening, the anticipation of signaling through delayed sales incentivizes originators to exert greater effort ex ante. A central prediction in those models is a positive relationship between screening effort and the...

This paper shows that shocks to social benefits have local multiplier effects that are borne primarily by economically fragile households. Using a large welfare reform in the UK, we document that recipients not only lose benefits income, but also experience a lower relative likelihood of...

This paper documents that mortgage servicers increased modification rates by approximately 8 percent for delinquent loans located in a district whose representative was a member of the Financial Services Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 111th Congress. We document that...