Probability models for duration have been applied to a wide range of individual-level and organizational phenomena. Interestingly, seemingly similar models may produce different results. Using divorce as an illustration, we discuss a hierarchy of duration models of different complexity and show...

Demonstrations of marketing effectiveness currently proceed on two parallel tracks: quantitative researchers model the direct sales effects of the marketing mix, while advertising and branding experts trace customer mindset metrics like awareness and affect. We merge the two tracks and analyze...

We develop a simple method for forecasting and benchmarking consumer trial of new products. First, we extend the exponential trial growth models used in controlled test markets to the context of national product launches. This provides a marketing science benchmark against which our new approach...