This paper examines if overreaction of oil price forecasters is related to uncertainty. Furthermore, it takes into account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression model from González et al. (2005) is applied with...

It has been widely documented that reference points influence the choice. If references affect choice by attracting attention towards an alternative, what can be said about the joint effect of the references? Assuming that references form preferences, or are rational filters, this paper extracts...

Recently there has been much interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We develop methods to analyze different sources of uncertainty in one coherent structure useful for policy decisions. We show how to estimate the size of the uncertainty based on time series data, and...

In simulated out-of-sample experiments to the Eurozone this paper finds that not only are real-time point estimates of the output gap unreliable, but so are measures of uncertainty associated with them. This provides a serious challenge to users of output gap estimates.