This paper predicts ex-ante the probability of currency crises end size of expected devaluations month by month for Mexico between 1980 and 1986 using a heterodox linear discrete time model of exchange rate crises. The forces contributing to speculative attacks on the Mexican peso include...

The view that the strength of the dollar in the early 1980s was associated with persistent restructuring of United States industry is supported by correlations between exchange rate patterns and data on business formation, business failure and sectoral investment in new plant and equipment....

Patterns in domestic credit creation stemming from inconsistent fiscal policies have received widespread attention for aggravating speculative attacks on central bank foreign exchange reserves and contributing to the collapse of exchange rate regimes. This paper acknowledges the importance of...

[...]In this article, we demonstrate how such industry-specific realexchange rates can be constructed and present the recent pathsof these indexes. We next present three basic real exchange ratemeasures for each industry: one using export partner weightsonly, a second using import partner...

[...]This article presents four measures of externalorientation using industry-specific and time-varying datafor manufacturing industries in four countries—theUnited States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan.For each of these countries, we report export revenueshare, imports relative to...