The basic machines of macroeconomics. Ramsey, Solow, Samuelson-Diamond, RBCs, ISLM, Mundell-Fleming, Fischer-Taylor. How they work, what shortcuts they take, and how they can be used. Half-term subject. From the course home page: Course Description This is the second course in the four-quarter...

The basic machines of macroeconomics. Ramsey, Solow, Samuelson-Diamond, RBCs, ISLM, Mundell-Fleming, Fischer-Taylor. How they work, what shortcuts they take, and how they can be used. Half-term subject. From the course home page: Course Description This is the second course in the four-quarter...

At our first meeting, ten years ago, we offered a medium-term strategy for ending inflation and restoring productive growth to its long-term average. The rate of inflation for the previous three years was, then, about 5 1/2%. The average rate of money growth -- currency and checkable deposits --...

There are no good monetary policy options. Since policymakers must choose between alternative policies with undesirable consequences, there is no reason to assume that a single option will be selected and adhered to. Rather, policies will continue to alternate between "spurts" of monetary growth...

At the last meeting of this committee, we presented forecasts for the M 1 - Adjusted Monetary Base Multiplier in seasonally adjusted form for the first time. The seasonal adjustment was accomplished by utilizing the published seasonal factors for various components of the monety stock as...

The economy is sound structurally, but weak cyclically. The probability of recession remains relatively low, as heightened business efficiencies and the Federal Reserve's disinflationary monetary policy have reduced potentially disruptive imbalances in the economy. However, the Fed's sustained...

Pessimism about the current economy and its near-term prospects is overstated. The economy has grown at a 2 1/2% rate for the last two years. This is slightly lower than the average for the last century, but the difference is small. Concerns about near-term prospects have encouraged a return to...

The reflexes of politicians to problems, in particular those created by their past policies, are well conditioned. This pattern holds in particular for international financial problems. Major swings in the dollar in foreign exchange markets seem reliably associated with rising demands for...

Once again, the Federal Reserve is under attack from lawmakers who propose measures designed to increase the accountability of monetary policymakers while preserving the independence of the institution. Legislation that is currently the subject of debate on Capitol Hill would either remove the...

This position paper is divided into three parts. In the first part an analysis is present indicating the extent to which various forces have affected the growth of M1 since last November. (At the time of this writing August data are not yet available. I expect that the analysis can be updated to...