This paper proposes a two-step LASSO based vector autoregressive (2-LVAR) model to forecast mortality rates. Within the VAR framework, recent studies have developed a spatial-temporal autoregressive (STAR) model, in which age-specific mortality rates are related to their own historical values...

It is well known that the US political parties hold opposing views on many economic policies and foreign policies. Since China has become the largest trading partner of the US, the operation of the US-China bilateral relationship has developed into an essential and sensitive political issue that...

Most empirical investigations of the business cycles in the United States have excluded the dimension of asymmetric conditional volatility. This paper analyses the volatility dynamics of the US business cycle by comparing the performance of various multivariate generalised autoregressive...

This paper analyses thé volatility dynamics of thé UK business cycle by proposing four new multivariate asymmetric GARCH models that not only capture asymmetric volatility but aso time-varying corrélations. The results indicate the existence of asymmetric volatility, but it is sensitive to...