This paper develops and estimates a macro-finance model that combines a canonical affine no-arbitrage finance specification of the term structure with standard macroeconomic aggregate relationships for output and inflation. From this new empirical formulation, we obtain several important...

In 2004 and 2005, long-term interest rates remained remarkably low despite improving economic conditions and rising short-term interest rates, a situation that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan dubbed a conundrum. We document the extent and timing of this conundrum using two empirical...

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- PART I: INTRODUCTION -- 1. Questions about Business Cycles -- PART II: BUSINESS CYCLE DURATIONS -- 2. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized? -- 3. Shorter Recessions and Longer Expansions -- 4. A Nonparametric Investigation of...