Using a sample of 156 monthly returns over the period of 1996–2008, we find a positive relation between the monthly issuing size and prior market returns, suggesting that the government decides the timing and the size of issuances based on prior market conditions. Different from previous...

Many so-called return predictability anomalies disappear over time. One theoretical explanation is that investors arbitrage profits away through their trading. But investors have used technical analysis strategies for ages, so this argument may not necessarily hold for seemingly profitable...