In Foresight’s Hot New Research Section, Goodwin comments on a recent article by Jerker Denrell and Christine Fang, published in Management Science, in which the authors warn against trusting intuition while overlooking the underlying rate. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Holt-Winters (HW) is the label we frequently give to a set of procedures that form the core of the exponential-smoothing family of forecasting methods. The basic structures were provided by C.C. Holt in 1957 and his student Peter Winters in 1960. Those of you unfamiliar with exponential...

In this Hot New research column, Goodwin cites a recent blog of Uriel Haran and Don Moore of Ben-Gurion University, who Òpresent a simple method that aims to improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts involving probability distributions.Ó The authors call their method SPIES: Subjective...

In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat...

This is Paul GoodwinÕs 11th Hot New Research column for Foresight, a feature that seeks to offer non-technical summaries of important new research for students, teachers, and practitioners of forecasting. See the list of his other subjects at the end of the article. Copyright International...

Goodwin comments on the drawbacks and problems involved in using off-the-peg error metrics and cites studies by several recent researchers on the accuracy and effectiveness of these metrics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Goodwin defines hindsight bias and gives examples, examines its psychological basis, shows how it may interfere with the forecasting process, and suggests ways it might be at least partly overcome. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2010

In this Hot New Research Column in Foresight, Paul reports on three new approaches to the difficult challenge of supermarket forecasting. James Taylor has investigated a robust approach to this challenge; he calls it exponentially weighted quantile regression (EWQR). Aburto and Weber propose...