A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat...

This is Paul GoodwinÕs 11th Hot New Research column for Foresight, a feature that seeks to offer non-technical summaries of important new research for students, teachers, and practitioners of forecasting. See the list of his other subjects at the end of the article. Copyright International...

Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not...

In this paper, we engage with O'Brien's [O'Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning - lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709-722] identification of both pitfalls in teaching scenario planning and proposed remedies for these. We consider...

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized forecasting system to produce initial forecasts and the subsequent judgmental adjustment of these...

Purpose - Hard decision analysis models allow complex decisions to be broken down into easier-to-handle and precisely defined sub-problems and also provide a documented rationale for the decision. This paper aims to investigate why the course of action prescribed by a hard decision analysis...