The initial release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in early 2001 pointed to the very real possibility that the U.S. economy was teetering on the brink of recession. This article quantifies the statistical ability of the CFNAI to act as an early warning indicator of economic...

Remarks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.

Remarks at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business Annual U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City.

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast...

Selected Papers from a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, and the National Association for Business Economics, July 11, 2002. Beverly Hirtle examines the market risk capital figures reported to regulators by U.S. bank...

The timing, length and severity of economic recessions and expansions in a state are important to businesses seeking to set up operations or expand in those areas. Given a limited amount of data at the state level and their sometimes inconsistent movements, it is not straight forward to define a...