This paper studies the effects of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs on the trading volume,price volatility, and liquidity of stocks. Following Kurz and Motolese (2008), wepropose a simple theoretical model to show that the equilibrium stock price is linearlyand positively correlated with market...

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal...

This paper tests whether out-of-sample hedonic value predictions can be improved when a large urban housing market is divided into submarkets.

The results of recent studies on prediction markets are encouraging. Prior experience demonstrates that markets with different incentive schemes predicted uncertain future events at a remarkable accuracy. In this paper, we study the impact of different monetary incentives on the prediction...

Forecasting markets are a promising approach for predicting future events. The basic idea of a forecasting market is to trade virtual stocks whose final value is tied to a particular future event. The market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of those future events....

Diese Masterthesis soll zukünftige Marktentwicklungen des Grossraums Bern als Wohnort ausweisen. Da der Blick in die Zukunft von verschiedenen Prognosen abhängig ist, wird eine qualitative Vorgehensweise gewählt. Somit sollen die Grundzüge festgelegt werden, die erkennen lassen, wie sich der...

Prediction markets are a promising approach forpredicting uncertain future events and developments.These markets will work well if they are efficient and inefficient markets, one does not expect arbitrageopportunities to be persistent. This paper thereforestudies whether pure arbitrage...

Prediction markets have proven high forecasting performance in many areas such as politics, sportsand business-related fields compared to traditional instruments such as polls or expert opinions. Theadvantage of real-money prediction markets is to provide participants with a clear incentive to...