to the IAB Establishment Panel. Quite surprisingly, the study reveals the average forecast to be significantly … overpessimistic. I propose that the non-existence of a general bias towards overoptimism is due to the lack of incentives to …

ex post to be more forseeable then they actually were. This so-called Hindsight Bias occurs even within expert, including …. Dieser sogenannte Rückschaufehler bzw. "Hindsight Bias" tritt auf bei Experten, inklusive Richtern, auf. …