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Fly with the eagles or scratch with the chickens? - zum Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern
Pierdzioch, Christian; Schäfer, Dirk; Stadtmann, Georg - 2010
" zu betreiben. -- Wechselkurse ; Wechselkursprognosen ; Herdenverhalten …In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so … genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008665578
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Fly with the eagles or scratch with the chickens? Zum Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern
Pierdzioch, Christian; Schäfer, Dirk; Stadtmann, Georg - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010
In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so … genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker … Wechselkurse des Japanischen Yen, des Schweizer Franken, der Deutschen Mark und des Euros - gemessen jeweils gegenüber dem U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008683725
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A note on forecasting emerging market exchange rates : evidence of anti-herding
Pierdzioch, Christian; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; … - 2012
Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621775
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Are Oil Price Forecasters Finally Right? Regressive Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price
Reitz, Stefan - 2016
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991103
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Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets: Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters
Reitz, Stefan; Rülke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg - 2011
Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285496
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Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets : evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters
Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg - 2011
Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009152528
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Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets : evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters
Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg - 2012
Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009666484
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Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets : evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters
Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg - 2012
Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009409380
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Biases in FX-Forecasts: Evidence from Panel Data
Audretsch, David B.; Stadtmann, Georg - 2005
In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296155
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Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price
Reitz, Stefan; Rülke, Jan-Christoph; Stadtmann, Georg - 2009
We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299850