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Global integration of central and Eastern European financial markets : the role of economic sentiments

Belke, Ansgar; Beckmann, Joscha; Kühl, Michael - 2010

This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments, e.g. consumer moods, for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEECs'; financial markets. Since the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950852

Equilibrium real interest rates and secular stagnation : an empirical analysis for euro area member countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2016

Is secular stagnation a valid concern for Euro Area countries? We tackle this question using the well-established Laubach-Williams model to estimate the unobservable equilibrium real interest rate and compare it to the actual real rate. We apply our approach to twelve Euro Area countries, since...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011500118

Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation : empirical evidence for euro area countries

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article introduces a new measure to capture safe haven flows for twelve Euro area countries. Since those flows are suspected to alter the natural rate of interest, which is at the heart of the discussion whether certain countries face a period of secular stagnation, we estimate the natural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134351

QE in the euro area : has the PSPP benefited peripheral bonds?

Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2019

The asset purchase programme of the euro area, active between 2015 and 2018, constitutes an interesting special case of Quantitative Easing (QE) because the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) involved the purchase of peripheral euro area government bonds, which were clearly not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011994801

Forecasting ECB policy rates with different monetary policy rules

Belke, Ansgar; Klose, Jens - 2019

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034314

Interest rate bands of inaction and play-hysteresis in domestic investment : evidence for the euro area

Belke, Ansgar; Frenzel Baudisch, Coletta; Göcke, Matthias - 2019

The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034406

International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty : a FAVAR approach

Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2017

Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we estimate a large-scale FAVAR model for 18 OECD member countries. We quantify the global effects of economic policy uncertainty shocks and check whether the signs, the magnitude, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011640939

Central bank communication : managing expectations through the monetary dialogue

Belke, Ansgar - 2017

Successfully managing a course back to normality ("exit") will depend crucially on the central banks' ability to communicate effectively a credible strategy for an orderly exit from such kind of policies. In this context, clear, deliberate, coordinated messages that are anchored in the central...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011644116

The economic impact of Brexit : evidence from modelling free trade agreements

Belke, Ansgar; Gros, Daniel - 2017

between the UK and the EU27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the US …). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. But all available studies … concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU27 would bear …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662701

Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area

Aßhoff, Sina; Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2020

With the ECB's policy rate having reached the zero lower bound, traditional monetary policy tools became ineffective and the ECB was forced to adopt a set of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures. This paper examines the effects of the ECB’s UMP on inflation expectations in the Euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149519