forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the …

-specific forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … outperform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted to match … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

-specific forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … outperform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country specific forecasts are adjusted to match … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

-speci…c forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Over-all, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark... …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts also in short samples with structural change. …

performance of factor models. We complement the analysis with an empirical evaluation of forecasts for the key macroeconomic … factor-based forecasts in short samples with structural change. …

This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international … trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the …

paper show that the real-time consideration of these forecasts has the potential to improve the precision with which past … forecasts is also aptly demonstrated through the use of simulation techniques, density functions, and event probability … forecasts. …