A Dynamic Forecasting System for Vehicle Markets with Clean-Fuel Vehicles

This research deals with demand for automobiles and light-duty and medium-duty trucks. Planners concerned with energy consumption, air quality and the provision of transportation facilities must have dependable forecasts of vehicle ownership and use from both the residential (personal-use vehicle) sectors and the fleet (commercial and governmental sectors). As long as vehicles evolved slowly, it was possible to base such forecasts on extrapolations of observed demand. However, in an era of increasing environmental awareness, mandated in part by the US Clean Air Act Amendments (US EPA, 1990), government agencies are now concerned with promoting clean-fuel vehicles; vehicle manufacturers are faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles; and suppliers of fuels other than gasoline must plan infrastructure and pricing policies.