Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecaster build their expectations. Our findings point into the direction that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random-walk benchmark. However, it seems that this result might be biased due to peso problems.

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Year of publication:	2009-06-05
Authors:	Reitz, Stefan ; Ruelke, Jan ; Stadtmann, Georg
Institutions:	Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Subject:	Oil price \| survey data \| forecast bias \| peso problem

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	MPRA Paper.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Classification:	D84 - Expectations; Speculations
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005668410