Conflicts and Environmental Change: Models and Methods

The chapter is devoted to the urgent problem of forecasting conflicts on the basis of economics and mathematical models. A new approach is proposed for research of existing and potential international conflicts at the global and local levels, based on economic, social, demographic, environmental, and political factors of instability. At the global level, the analysis is based on major features of the main civilizations and on indicators of environmental tension, particularly in the relations between West European (Mediterranean) and Islamic (Arab) civilizations; Islamic (Turkic) and Eastern Christian civilizations; and Eastern Christian countries and the People's Republic of China. A method is described for predicting conflicts on the basis of estimation, modeling, and comparison of military capital. At the local level, characteristics are given of the local conflicts in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the model of dynamics and procedure for settling armed conflicts with the help of a regional leader. The results, which are based on economic data, permit a deeper understanding of geopolitical and environmental processes. On this basis recommendations are developed aimed at preventing conflicts.