On Indicators of Possible Inter-Civilization Conflicts" in "Models for Security Policy in the Post-Cold War Era

The authors propose a set of five fundamental parameters that they consider to be indicative of future conflicts. They conclude that there is a high risk for inter-civilization conflicts which will become the major source of global instability in the next century. It would be in the West's self interest to strengthen Russia and the CIS states which belong to the Orient-Christian civilization that shows a high conflict potential vis-a-vis the Islamic and Confucian civilizations at its borders.