Coping with Unpleasant Surprises in a Complex World : Is Rational Choice Possible in a World with Positive Information Costs?

This paper provides a rational choice-based analysis of the causes and consequences of surprise events. The paper argues that ignorance may be rational, but nonetheless produce systematic mistakes, inconsistent behavior, and both pleasant and unpleasant surprises. If ignorance and unpleasant surprises are commonplace and relevant for individual and group decisionmaking, we should observe standing institutions for dealing with them, and we do

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Year of publication:	2011
Authors:	Congleton, Roger D.
Publisher:	[S.l.] : SSRN
Subject:	Rationalität \| Rationality \| Theorie \| Theory \| Begrenzte Rationalität \| Bounded rationality \| Erwartungsbildung \| Expectation formation

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