Economic and Labour Market Impacts of Migration in Austria : An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

This study examines the potential impact of a hypothetical but plausible migration scenario on Austria’s economy and labour market, inspired by Austria’s experience in 2015. Using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Poledna et al. (2023), the study explores the detailed labour market outcomes for different groups in Austria's population and the macroeconomic effects of the migration scenario. The analysis suggests that Austria's economy and labour market have the potential to be resilient to an influx of 250,000 new migrants. The results indicate a positive impact on GDP due to increased aggregate consumption and investment. The labour market experiences an increase in unemployment rates of natives and previous migrants. In some industries, the increase in the unemployment rates is more significant, potentially indicating competition among different groups of migrants. This research provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Austria and other countries that may face the challenge of managing large-scale migration in the near future