Flow of the Game : A Hidden Markov Model of Player Game-play and Reward Ads Watching Behavior in Online Mobile Games

With the rapid development of mobile technology and consumers’ increasing demand for portability, the mobile gaming market has experienced huge growth. To ensure the success of mobile games, game publishers need to keep their players engaged and, at the same time, seek monetization strategies that do not interrupt players’ engagement. Reward ads, a relatively new and increasingly popular in-app advertising monetization model in which players can voluntarily watch an ad in exchange for a reward within the game, can help publishers generate revenue without breaking the flow of the game. This paper builds a Hidden Markov Model to examine how players’ intrinsic motivation factors and reward ads affect mobile game players' dynamic engagement state evolution. Using detailed tapstream data from a mobile game app, we find that player's engagement transition is a complex process, and players in high, medium, or low engagement states respond differently to different factors. First, watching reward ads can help players to transition to a higher engagement level, and the magnitude of the positive effect diminishes as players transition to higher engagement states. Second, there is an inverted-U shape between the fluctuation of the perceived difficulty and the propensity of moving to or staying at a higher engagement level. Third, the perceived difficulty is helpful for players who are in a low or high engagement state, and a feeling of achievement has a positive effect on players in all states. Finally, players in a low engagement level are more likely to watch reward ads compared with players in a medium engagement level, and players are more likely to watch reward ads when games become difficult. The findings enhance the understanding of players' engagement and motivations to play mobile games and provide design guidance for mobile game publishers