Forecasting New Product Trial with Analogous Series

We develop a simple method for forecasting and benchmarking consumer trial of new products. First, we extend the exponential trial growth models used in controlled test markets to the context of national product launches. This provides a marketing science benchmark against which our new approach can be compared. Second, as managers do not generally possess the skills to apply marketing science models, we apply the rarely-used method of analogous series to forecast consumer trial. We show that this method performs just as well as the marketing science approach. Third, we convert the results of the analogous series into a simple empirical generalization that enables the cumulative trial metric to be both benchmarked and used for forecasting. These results will allow managers and other researchers to systematically interpret this widely used metric against scientifically developed norms