How the Second Child and Immigration Policies Affect the Population Structure : An Example from a City in Jiangsu in the Context of Aging

Abstract: Backgrounds: Currently, China has implemented second child policy, and at the same time, many cities in China have Promulgate immigration policy to appeal labor force mainly for talented people, these measures are aim to avoid the aging problems. Chinese population structure has entered the aging era. The ratio of the elderly is increasing to a point where the government must think carefully. Method: The model is based on Leslie model which is dynamic difference equation, the model has two modules: firstly, the prediction of future population structure under existing conditions. Secondly, adding two parameters of second child policy and immigration policy to predict future population structure by using modified Leslie model. Results: We find that just 10 years late, in 2029 the ratio of population over 60 will be 39.45%, far beyond the 10% aging threshold. If adding the parameter of second child policy, the ratio can be 38.1%, 37.9%, 37.7%, 37.5% of different values and when adding immigration policy, the ratio can be 35.1%, 35.4%, 35.8%, 36.1% of different values. We can use the modified model to help the government judge how powerful policies can help balance the population structure. Conclusion: The results above show that if the government does not formulate policies to improve the population structure, the aging problem will continue to deteriorate, the government need to consider implementing pro-natalist Incentive and lowering the threshold of policy. The government should take preventive measures for aging social problems, such as recruit more doctors in advance