Long- and Short-Run supply-chain optimization models for the allocation and congestion management of containerized imports from Asia to the United States

Analytical models are introduced for predicting the allocation to ports and transportation channels of containerized goods imported from Asia to the USA. Assuming fixed distributions for container flow-times, the Long-Run Model heuristically solves a mixed integer non-linear program to determine the least-cost supply-chain strategies for importers. The Short-Run Model uses estimates of the flow times as a function of traffic volumes on fixed infrastructure to iteratively develop the best near-term strategies. Minimum volume requirements and capacities for ports and landside channels are considered. The models are applied to predict the effects of container fees at the San Pedro Bay ports.