Modelling the CAP Reform at the Regional Level with ProLand

The reform of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will fundamentally affect the decision behaviour of land users. So far transfer payments were coupled to specific forms of land use. The reform encourages land users to make decisions concerning production based solely on market aspects. The effects of the CAP reform on the Lahn Dill region in Germany are simulated with the spatially explicit land use model ProLand. The results show that land use decisions will be based stronger on site specific natural conditions than was the case in the Agenda 2000 scenario. The transfer payment volume directed into the region increases considerably.