Rechtstreeks Verwachtingen Evalueren of de Nul Hypothese Toetsen? Nul Hypothese Toetsing Versus Bayesiaanse Model Selectie (Directly Evaluating Expectations or Testing the Null Hypothesis : Null Hypothesis Testing Versus Bayesian Model Selection)

In veel psychologische artikelen wordt klassieke nulhypothesetoetsing (NHT) gebruikt om onderzoeksvragen te beantwoorden. De resultaten kunnen echter onbevredigend zijn. Rechtstreeks de verwachtingen evalueren zou beter zijn, maar is niet mogelijk met NHT. We laten zien wat de nadelen zijn van NHT en hoe het beter kan, namelijk met Bayesiaanse modelselectie die we introduceren voor nietstatistici. Researchers in psychology have specific expectations about their theories. These are called informative hypothesis because they contain information about reality. Note that these hypotheses are not necessarily the same as the traditional null and alternative hypothesis. Many researchers use traditional null-hypothesis testing to evaluate informative hypotheses. However, this can be problematic, as will become clear in this article. We offer an innovative solution to evaluate informed hypotheses based on Bayesian Model Selection. The method is introduced in non-statistical terms and its utility is illustrated by applying it to examples from occupational health psychology