Testing Forward Rate Unbiasedness in India : An Econometric Analysis of Indo - Us Forex Market

The 'Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis' (UFH) states that the forward exchange rate of any foreign currency must be an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate. In developed economies, considerable empirical work has been undertaken by researchers to test the validity of UFH; however the results have been quite mixed. In the Indian context, little empirical (or even theoretical) work has been undertaken to test/examine/investigate the validity of UFH in the Indian forex market. In this paper, we attempt to reexamine in Indian context the familiar relationship between forward and future spot rate. Using the rates for the US Dollar on a monthly basis, we use 'level' specification to test for UFH in the Indo - US foreign exchange rate market. Cointegration tests are performed to confirm the legitimacy of forward rate and spot rate being included in regression. Evidence of serial correlation is found and models for correction of serial correlation are used. The data, taken from the Reserve Bank of India, covers a period from September 2000 to January 2007. Our investigations reveal that the Indian forex market does not fully support the UFH. For the entire sample period, the evidences indicate that even though the current forward rate has a significant impact in predicting the future spot rate, however, enough variability remain to make the predictions a suspect. Based on our evidences, we highlight some reasons as to why the UHF fails in the Indian forex market and suggest areas for further research