The role of electrification induced peak loads and gas infrastructure constraints on decarbonization pathways in New York State

New York State policies impose time bound targets for both progressively larger emissions reductions and increasing fractions of zero-carbon electricity. This paper compares pathways to meet desired emissions reduction goals with or without specified zero-carbon electricity targets. We show that when an additional lever for reducing emissions - electrification of buildings and transportation - is considered, New York State can meet the same desired emissions targets at considerably lower levelized costs of electricity (LCOEs) if specified zero-carbon electricity targets are relaxed. We also investigate how electrification induced new peak loads and limits on new gas infrastructure impact state decarbonization pathways. To meet the 40% emissions reduction target by 2030, two new illustrative approaches are considered. One pathway with 100% electrification of buildings and vehicles, 11 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity and 21 GW of new gas generation capacity leads to an LCOE of $63/MWh. An alternate pathway that precludes new gas generation capacity requires 60% electrification, nearly doubles the installed wind and solar capacity, and results in an LCOE of $72/MWh. Due to the added emissions reduction benefits from electrification, both illustrative pathways are lower cost than a pathway in which the same 40% reduction target is combined with a specified 70% renewable target - at an LCOE of $92/MWh. We also show that LCOEs can be kept manageable through shaving of new higher peak loads that arise from electrified heating. Moreover, the LCOE impact of limiting peak natural gas flow to its current quantities is found to be small.