Using the Delphi Technique to Predict Future Tourism Potential

The South African tourism industry is expected to develop substantially over the next five years owing to anticipated high tourism market growth rates. However, tourism demand is subject to a host of uncontrollable factors which are difficult to measure and project. Despite this fact the tourism industry of a country, including both private sector and public sector operators, needs scientifically accepted projection bases to make investment and other strategic decisions. Aims to convey the results and recommendations of an empirical study based on the Delphi research model and to indicate the implications thereof for future ational tourism strategies of South Africa. The approach, methodology and techniques used in the research are relevant to researchers internationally and the recommendations are useful for national tourism policy and strategy formulation in any geographical context.