In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat...

In this Hot New Research Column in Foresight, Paul reports on three new approaches to the difficult challenge of supermarket forecasting. James Taylor has investigated a robust approach to this challenge; he calls it exponentially weighted quantile regression (EWQR). Aburto and Weber propose...

In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this report, they document the extent of the problem within four large companies, explore the...

Mistrust is a serious problem for organizations. So much has been written about functional biases and misaligned incentives that one wonders how anyone can trust a forecast provider. Well, now we have some studies that shed new light on the factors that can build or impede trust in forecasting....

Goodwin introduces his article with an incident in Italy when seven people (engineers, scientists, and a civil servant) were jailed following an earthquake in the city of L?Aquila in which 309 people died. At the trial it was alleged that they had failed in their duty by not properly assessing...

The most recent three issues of Foresight featured Steve Morlidge’s encyclopedic rendition of “Guiding Principles” for an organization’s forecasting process. The guiding principles were divided into five classifications: Foundation Principles, Design Principles, Process Principles,...

See title Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

In this Hot New research column, Goodwin cites a recent blog of Uriel Haran and Don Moore of Ben-Gurion University, who Òpresent a simple method that aims to improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts involving probability distributions.Ó The authors call their method SPIES: Subjective...

Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005