Competition is intense among rival technologies and success depends on predicting their future trajectory of performance. To resolve this challenge, managers often follow popular heuristics, generalizations, or “laws” like the Moore’s Law. We propose a model, Step And Wait (SAW), for...

Technological change is perhaps the most powerful engine of growth in markets today. To harness this source of growth, firms need answers to key questions about the dynamics of technological change: (1) How do new technologies evolve? (2) How do rival technologies compete? and (3) How do firms...

While a time-based segmentation approach to customer segmentation for new products allows firms to identify consumers in the innovators and the early adopters segments, we add a profitability-based perspective to generate new insights. Using six years of data on the adoption of technology...