The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires.We show the generality of this unpleasant finding for the standard real business cyclemodel. We then calibrate an extended model for the US and demonstrate how fiscalstimulus slows down economic recovery from...

We set up a neoclassical growth model extended by a corporate sector, aninvestment and finance decision of firms, and a set of taxes on capital income. We provideanalytical dynamic scoring of taxes on corporate income, dividends, capital gains, otherprivate capital income, and depreciation...

Previous research on optimal R&D subsidies has focussed on the long run.This paper characterizes the optimal time path of R&D subsidization in a semi-endogenous growth model, by exploiting a recently developed numerical method.Starting from the steady state under current R&D subsidization in the...

We use a long panel data set for four entry cohorts into an internal labor market toanalyze the effect of age on the probability to participate in different training measures.We find that training participation probabilities are inverted u-shaped with age and thatlonger training measures are...

The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. Thispaper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majorityof whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis isthe most...

We consider a recently proposed class of nonlinear time series models and focus mainly onmisspecification testing for models of such type. Following the modeling cycle for nonlineartime series models of specification, estimation and evaluation we first treat how to choosean adequate transition...

In ESTAR models it is usually dfficult to determine parameter estimates, as it can be observedin the literature. We show that the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is aconsequence of the so-called identication problem, the problem of properly distinguishing thetransition function...

In this paper we analyze the distribution of fertility rates across theworld using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twinpeaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: ahigh-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the signicance...

This study provides a unied growth theory to correctly predictthe initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortalityand net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the courseof their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate...

This paper theoretically investigates how community approval or disapprovalaects school attendance and child labor and how aggregate behavior of thecommunity feeds back towards the formation and persistence of an anti- (or pro-)schooling norm. The proposed community-model continues to take...