We develop a simple method for forecasting and benchmarking consumer trial of new products. First, we extend the exponential trial growth models used in controlled test markets to the context of national product launches. This provides a marketing science benchmark against which our new approach...

Theories of consumer behaviour often rely on "folk psychology". This is a common method of explanation in the social sciences, but it has some major limitations which are usually ignored in the marketing literature. To overcome these limitations, researchers must make an explicit choice between...